Method to My Madness
So some questions have arisen about my formula. Well, first off, let me just say I am not going to give away the exact formula to my secret sauce. Think of this as one of those cooking shows on television, where they say, throw in some sugar or add some garlic, but never give you the exact amounts.
I started with the notion that teams should obviously be credited for playing well throughout the season, but also that because there is no playoff in college football, games later in the season take on more meaning. So, a game in November is going to count more than a game played in September. The National Championship should be played between teams that are the best, and typically the best teams play better late in the season when the pressure is greater. I’d rather see a 11-1 team that is red-hot and won 11 straight games playing in the national title game than an 11-1 team that lost its last week of the season. The hot team, at the moment the rankings are calculated is, at that point in the season, the better team.
With that being said, for wins, the formula includes the opponent’s winning percentage, the opponent’s ranking at the time the game was played, when the game was played and bonus points for road victories.
For losses, teams lose points based on the opponent’s winning percentage, if they are ranked or not, when the game was played and lose extra points for losing at home.
I think ranking at the time two teams played is important because it values a team for playing a perceived tougher non-conference game at the beginning of the season. Plus it values a team for beating an opponent when they were playing well. Opponent’s winning percentage, which is the largest individual piece, makes up for the fact the team might have tanked and fallen out of the rankings.
So, for the Arkansas-USC situation; Arkansas got hammered for losing at home, but not punished too much because USC was highly ranked. Despite not getting a huge boost because it was early in the season, USC gets major points for winning on the road and the fact that Arkansas has a great winning percentage and has played well since the game. Basically that situation comes down to who Arkansas and USC lost to, at what time of the season, and who has better victories. In this case, the formula says that the slight advantage based on those factors goes to Arkansas.
Next week, it could all change!
I started with the notion that teams should obviously be credited for playing well throughout the season, but also that because there is no playoff in college football, games later in the season take on more meaning. So, a game in November is going to count more than a game played in September. The National Championship should be played between teams that are the best, and typically the best teams play better late in the season when the pressure is greater. I’d rather see a 11-1 team that is red-hot and won 11 straight games playing in the national title game than an 11-1 team that lost its last week of the season. The hot team, at the moment the rankings are calculated is, at that point in the season, the better team.
With that being said, for wins, the formula includes the opponent’s winning percentage, the opponent’s ranking at the time the game was played, when the game was played and bonus points for road victories.
For losses, teams lose points based on the opponent’s winning percentage, if they are ranked or not, when the game was played and lose extra points for losing at home.
I think ranking at the time two teams played is important because it values a team for playing a perceived tougher non-conference game at the beginning of the season. Plus it values a team for beating an opponent when they were playing well. Opponent’s winning percentage, which is the largest individual piece, makes up for the fact the team might have tanked and fallen out of the rankings.
So, for the Arkansas-USC situation; Arkansas got hammered for losing at home, but not punished too much because USC was highly ranked. Despite not getting a huge boost because it was early in the season, USC gets major points for winning on the road and the fact that Arkansas has a great winning percentage and has played well since the game. Basically that situation comes down to who Arkansas and USC lost to, at what time of the season, and who has better victories. In this case, the formula says that the slight advantage based on those factors goes to Arkansas.
Next week, it could all change!
posted by Steve Bernard @ 6:33 PM
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