Championship Weekend Preview

Four teams are left and it’s just a couple of weeks until the Super Bowl. As I have the last couple of weeks, I’m here to breakdown the matchups, and make my predictions for the NFC and AFC Championship games.

New Orleans at Chicago – This should be a great game; the most prolific offense during the regular season in the NFL against one of the toughest defenses in the league. Based on how each team performed the previous few weeks, the game should be somewhat high scoring and definitely close.

When New Orleans has the ball – The Saints had the top-ranked offense in the league this year. The Bears were ranked no. 5 on defense during the regular season. The inside-outside combination of Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush provides the Saints multiple options in the running game. It will be up to Brian Urlacher to read formations and contain these two explosive runners, especially Bush who prefers to take the ball outside. Urlacher and the Bears defensive ends will have to use his speed and get to the corners quickly to cut off angles. The Bears picked off 24 passes during the regular season, but Brees is one of the best quarterbacks in the league right now. He completed better than 64 percent of his passes this season and threw only 11 interceptions.

Over the last five games, the Bears have seen quarterbacks throw for an average of 285 yards per game. That does not bode well for Chicago this week because Brees is the best of the bunch. Joe Horn could be back for the game, and if he is, don’t expect a ton from him because he's returning from a leg injury. Even still, he could pose as a nice decoy and free up some space for guys like Marques Colston. Devin Hester, Ricky Manning, Jr. and Charles Tillman will have their hands quite full this week. I think McAllister will pick up at least 100 yards and Brees will throw for 250 yards.

When Chicago has the ball – The Bears' offense was mediocre this season, while the Saints' defense was solid against the pass, but weak against the run. What does that mean? Well for a team like the Bears with a wildly inconsistent passing attack, Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson are the key offensive weapons. The pair will need to combine for 30 to 35 carries at least for the Bears to have a chance. Jones should get about 75 percent of the carries as well. The Saints would be wise to have a safety creep up closer to the line to help in run support and force Rex Grossman to beat them. Jones will rush for at least 80 yards and Grossman will pass for around 175 yards in the game.

Special Teams – John Carney has been one of the most consistent kickers in the league the last few seasons and is solid. Robbie Gould came up huge last week, but is still a little young to be completely relied on. Devin Hester and his six returns for touchdowns are the wildcard. I would expect the Saints to kick away from him every chance they can. Field position can play a big role in playoff games, so minimizing big returns will be important.

Prediction – For everyone living in Miami the title of a song by The Skids says it all: “The Saints are Coming.” Saints win 28-21.

New England at Indianapolis – It’s like déjà vu all over again. For the third time in the past few years, these two meet for a chance to go to the Super Bowl. Of course this year the game is being played in Indianapolis and not in New England. It’s become one of the best rivalries in the league and this weekend’s game should not disappoint.

When Indianapolis has the ball – The Colts need Peyton Manning to play like he did in the regular season, not what he’s done the past two weeks. The Colts have won despite his struggles recently. Manning has Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne on the outside and will likely get plenty of opportunities to hook up with each. Joseph Addai has been a solid first option out of the backfield and should probably get about 20 carries or so this weekend.

Against Baltimore, Addai and teammate Dominick Rhodes were able to grind it out against one of the best run defenses in the league, so expect them to be solid again this week – probably about 125 or so yards between the pair. Chance are Manning is going to get his yards and throw for a couple of touchdowns, so the Patriots need to make sure they can contain Addai and Rhodes. Stopping the run will help prevent long drives and help the Patriots control the time of possession battle.

When New England has the ball – Tom Brady is about as clutch as they come among quarterbacks right now. He just seems to find a way to win. He made a perfect throw to Reche Caldwell on the game-winning drive in San Diego last week. Despite three interceptions, he still found a way to win.

The Patriots would be smart to rely on Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney to control the game. The Colts' defense during the regular season was brutal against the run, but has been solid in the playoffs. The Patriots must establish the run early to open up the passing game for Brady. Without an effective running game, the Patriots will struggle because they just don’t have enough big-play wide receivers.

Special Teams – Stephen Gostkowski has been good in his rookie season, but Adam Vinatieri is probably the most clutch kicker in the NFL. He used to be the guy winning games for the Patriots. Now he is winning them for the Colts. Just look at what Vinatieri did last week against Baltimore (five field goals, including connecting on a season-long 51-yard kick). He can win a game with his foot. If this game is close and comes down to a field goal, the Colts are at a decided advantage.

Prediction – It’s time for Manning and company to make their way to the Super Bowl. Of course, they are only going to get there because of ex-Patriot Adam Vinatieri. With the game on the line, Vinatieri will connect on a game-winning field goals (maybe not in the last 10 seconds, but late in the game) and the Patriots will be sent home wondering why they weren’t willing to spend that extra cap space they have on one of the most clutch players in the game right now. Colts win a thriller 27-24.

Who do you think will win? Post a comment with your predictions!

Photo Sources: dallasnews.com, chicagobears.com, espn.com, scout.com