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Saturday, March 10, 2007

NCAA Tournament Projections: The Day Before

Selection Sunday is tomorrow! So let’s jump right into the fray here and let you know what is going on. I am going to change up the look so you can see all the bubble teams together (just a reminder, automatic bids are given to the highest team left in the tournament).

Bubble teams are really sweating it out now that both Xavier (Atlantic 10) and Nevada (Western Athletic) both lost in their respective semifinals. Both of those conferences would have been one-bid conferences had those teams won. Now, they are likely to be two-bid conferences stealing precious at-large space.

One-Bid Conferences (18):
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: Long Beach State
Ivy: Pennsylvania
Metro Atlantic Athletic: Niagra
Mid Continent: Oral Roberts
Mid-America: Akron
Mid-Eastern Athletic: Delaware State
Northeast: Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley: Eastern Kentucky
Patriot: Holy Cross
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Southwest Athletic: Mississippi Valley State
Sunbelt: North Texas
West Coast Conference: Gonzaga

The following are one-bid conferences assuming the top seed wins.

Conference USA (1): Memphis

Now for the rest of the conferences (total current bids in parenthesis):

Atlantic 10 (2):
Automatic Bid: George Washington
Lock(s): Xavier
Bubble In: None
Bubble Out: None

Atlantic Coast Conference (7):
Automatic Bid: North Carolina
Lock(s): Boston College, Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Maryland
Bubble In: Georgia Tech
Bubble Out: Florida State

Big 12 (4):
Automatic Bid: Kansas
Lock(s): Texas A&M, Texas
Bubble In: Texas Tech
Bubble Out: Kansas State

Big East (7):
Automatic Bid: Georgetown
Lock(s): Marquette, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Villanova, Louisville, Syracuse
Bubble In: None
Bubble Out: West Virginia

Big Ten (6):
Automatic Bid: Ohio State
Lock(s): Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana
Bubble In: Illinois, Purdue
Bubble Out: Michigan

Colonial Athletic (3):
Automatic Bid: Virginia Commonwealth
Lock(s): None
Bubble In: Old Dominion, Drexel
Bubble Out: None

Horizon (2):
Automatic Bid: Wright State
Lock(s): Butler
Bubble In: None
Bubble Out: None

Missouri Valley (2):
Automatic Bid: Creighton
Lock(s): Southern Illinois
Bubble In: None
Bubble Out: Missouri State

Mountain West (2):
Automatic Bid: BYU
Lock(s): UNLV
Bubble In: None
Bubble Out: Air Force

Pacific-10 (5):
Automatic Bid: Oregon
Lock(s): UCLA, USC, Arizona, Washington State
Bubble In: None
Bubble Out: Stanford

Southeastern (4):
Automatic Bid: Florida
Lock(s): Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Bubble In: None
Bubble Out: Arkansas, Mississippi State

Western Athletic (2):
Automatic Bid: New Mexico State
Lock(s): Nevada
Bubble In: None
Bubble Out: None

They way I figure it, there are six spots still left on the bubble with 16 teams fighting for those spots. That means a ton of possibilities over the next couple of days. Here is how I am breaking down the bubble:

Ranking the Final Six on the Inside:
1 Old Dominion
2 Illinois
3 Purdue
4 Georgia Tech
5 Drexel
6 Texas Tech

Ranking the 10 Teams on the Outside:
1 Missouri State
2 Florida State
3 Kansas State
4 Oklahoma State
5 Air Force
6 West Virginia
7 Stanford
8 Arkansas
9 Michigan
10 Mississippi State

With Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Arkansas and Mississippi State still in their respective conference tournaments, they have the biggest opportunity to jump up or down in the final rankings.

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