NCAA Tournament Projections: Week 4

The projections are continuing to change. As the regular season starts to wind down things are shaking out and teams on the bubble are falling fast. But, there are still plenty of teams jockeying for one of the final coveted spots in the Big Dance.

Just a reminder, automatic bids are given to the team currently leading the conference.

Let’s start with conferences that will absolutely be getting only one bid (these teams need to maintain their spots at the top to make the dance):
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Sun: East Tennessee State
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: Long Beach State
Ivy: Pennsylvania
Metro Atlantic Athletic: Marist
Mid Continent: Oral Roberts
Mid-America: Akron
Mid-Eastern Athletic: Delaware State
Northeast: Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Patriot: Holy Cross
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Southwest Athletic: Mississippi Valley St.
Sunbelt: South Alabama

There are four conferences that would be one-bid conferences depending on who wins the tournament. If the NCAA Tournament was to start today, three of those teams are leading their conference, while one has fallen to second place. So as of now, from these four conferences, five teams would make the NCAA Tournament. Wright State is currently holding up a spot that would certainly go to someone else. Memphis, Butler and Nevada will make it as at-large teams if they cannot win their respective conference tournaments. Gonzaga would be on the bubble.

Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Wright State (automatic bid), Butler (at large)
West Coast: Gonzaga
Western Athletic: Nevada

Now for the rest of the conferences (total current bids in parenthesis):

Atlantic 10 (2):
In – Massachusetts (automatic bid), Xavier
On the Cusp – None
Long Climb Ahead – None

Atlantic Coast Conference (7):
In – North Carolina (automatic bid), Boston College, Duke, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Florida State, Virginia
On the Cusp – Maryland
Long Climb Ahead – Georgia Tech

Big 12 (5):
In – Texas A&M (automatic bid), Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State
On the Cusp – Texas Tech
Long Climb Ahead – None

Big East (6):
In – Pittsburgh (automatic bid), Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, West Virginia, Villanova
On the Cusp – Syracuse, Providence
Long Climb Ahead – Louisville

Big Ten (5):
In – Wisconsin (automatic bid), Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State, Illinois
On the Cusp – Michigan
Long Climb Ahead – Purdue

Colonial Athletic (1):
In – Virginia Commonwealth (automatic bid)
On the Cusp – Drexel
Long Climb Ahead – Hofstra, Old Dominion

Missouri Valley (3):
In – Southern Illinois (automatic bid), Creighton, Missouri State
On the Cusp – Bradley
Long Climb Ahead – None

Mountain West (3):
In – BYU (automatic bid), UNLV, Air Force
On the Cusp – None
Long Climb Ahead – None

Pacific-10 (6):
In – UCLA (automatic bid), Oregon, Washington State, USC, Arizona, Stanford
On the Cusp – None
Long Road Ahead – None

Southeastern (5):
In – Florida (automatic bid), Kentucky, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
On the Cusp – Georgia
Long Road Ahead – Arkansas

Final Six In: Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, USC, Michigan State, Illinois, Xavier
First Six Out: Georgia, Bradley, Drexel, Providence, Texas Tech, Maryland

What team did I miss? What team doesn’t deserve to be on the list? We want to know what you think. Post your comments below.