Super Bowl Preview

Yeah, I know I’m late to the game with my Super Bowl preview, but I figured I’d wait until today and contemplate this match up all week. First off, I think this game is going to be closer than the roughly seven-point spread, so if you are gambling, I suggest taking the Bears and the points (I make this prediction with a word of caution – I don’t really ever bet on sports, so take the prediction for what’s its worth: my opinion).

Here’s why I think this will be a close game…

When the Colts have the ball: Peyton Manning is clearly going to be the main offensive weapon as he is every game he steps onto the field. It’s a pretty simple formula, slow down (you can’t completely stop him) Peyton and you have a shot to win the game. You might think that means Brian Urlacher has to have a ridiculous game where he is disrupting pass after pass in the backfield, but that’s just not true. Urlacher had no sacks this season, so why would he have a bunch today? Urlacher just has to establish the middle of the field as his. He can’t let Joseph Addai and Dominick Rhodes break any big runs. Then, it’s the Bears front four to establish play in the Colts backfield to be effective. Alex Brown, Adewale Ogunleye and Mark Anderson combined for 25.5 sacks this season. That is impressive. They have to continue to bring a pass rush like that today; rushing and disrupting Manning, forcing him into errant passes.

The key for the Colts offense today is its offensive line. The five up front have to give Manning plenty of time to hit his receivers, and if they do that, the Colts have a great chance of winning.

Quite simply, which ever team can control the line in this match up has the biggest advantage of the day, and the inside track to a victory.

When the Bears have the ball: The key here is the Bears ability to establish the run. Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson combined for more than 1,800 yards and 12 touchdowns this season. The Bears tandem has to establish the run to take pressure off Rex Grossman. Time of possession that comes with establishing a solid running game also means less Peyton Manning on the field and that is always a good thing for Colts opponents. Grossman probably isn’t going to be a guy who will win the Super Bowl, but with a solid running game, opening up the play-action pass, Grossman will certainly have a chance to contribute to a victory.

Bob Sanders in the Colts playmaker in the secondary. He seems to have a nose for the ball, so expect him to be around the ball quite often today. If the Colts force a couple of turnovers today, Sanders is likely to be on the receiving end of a bad Grossman pass. Shutting down the Bears running game is the key for the Colts defense. Force Grossman to win the game through the air and the Colts defense could have a big day.

Special Teams: The most exciting return man in the NFL this season and the most clutch kicker potentially in the history of the league are playing in this game today. Devin Hester returned six kicks for touchdowns this season and there is a sense that anytime he catches a kick, he could return it. That creates an intimidating threat that Indianapolis could struggle with today as its kick coverage is subpar. The Colts might be best to avoid kicking to Hester whenever the opportunity presents itself.

If the game is close and a team needs a field goal, Vinatieri is the guy you want kicking. He has proven this time and again, so there is no reason to believe it wouldn’t happen again if the opportunity presents itself.

Players to watch:
Colts Offense: Tarik Glenn, Ryan Lilja, Jeff Saturday, Jake Scott and Ryan Diem
Colts Defense: Bob Sanders
Colts Special Team: Adam Vinatieri
Bears Offense: Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson
Bears Defense: Adewale Ogunleye, Alex Brown and Mark Anderson
Bears Special Team: Devin Hester

What does this all mean? It means the Colts are going to win the game 27-24.

Photo Sources: www.nfl.com, www.chicagobears.com, www.spokesmanreview.com