NCAA Tournament Projections: Round 2

I apologize for not posting in a week. I was in D.C. for a few days, but I'm back and I'm back with my second look at the NCAA Tournament.

First I just want to clear up one thing before we get to projecting the field of 65; teams listed with the automatic bid are currently leading their conference, and thus if the tournament were to start today these teams would get their conferences’ automatic bids. My predictions are projected as if the tournament selection committee were choosing today (based on all games through Sunday, Jan. 28).

Let’s start with conferences that will absolutely be getting only one bid (these teams need to maintain their spots at the top to make the dance):
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Sun: East Tennessee State
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: California State-Fullerton
Ivy: Pennsylvania
Metro Atlantic Athletic: Loyola (Md.)
Mid Continent: Oral Roberts
Mid-America: Toledo
Mid-Eastern Athletic: Delaware State
Northeast: Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Patriot: Holy Cross
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Southwest Athletic: Jackson State
Sunbelt: South Alabama

Now there are four conferences that are almost certainly only one-bid conferences, assuming the team at the top of the standings now wins the conference tournament. Potential at-large teams will have to root like hell for these four teams, because if they don’t get their conferences automatic bids, they are likely to steal coveted at-large spots.

Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler
West Coast: Gonzaga
Western Athletic: Nevada

Now for the rest of the conferences (total current bids in parenthesis):

Atlantic 10 (1):
In – George Washington (automatic bid)
On the Cusp – Massachusetts, Xavier
Long Climb Ahead – None

Atlantic Coast Conference (7):
In – Virginia Tech (automatic bid), North Carolina, Boston College, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Maryland
On the Cusp – Virginia, Georgia Tech
Long Climb Ahead – None

Big 12 (5):
In – Kansas (automatic bid), Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma State
On the Cusp – Kansas State
Long Climb Ahead – Oklahoma

Big East (7):
In – Pittsburgh (automatic bid), Syracuse, Notre Dame, Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia, Villanova
On the Cusp – Providence, Louisville
Long Climb Ahead – Connecticut, Seton Hall, DePaul

Big Ten (5):
In – Wisconsin (automatic bid), Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State, Michigan
On the Cusp – Illinois
Long Climb Ahead – Purdue

Colonial Athletic (2):
In – Virginia Commonwealth, Hofstra
On the Cusp – Drexel
Long Climb Ahead – None

Missouri Valley (3):
In – Southern Illinois (automatic bid), Creighton, Missouri State
On the Cusp – Bradley, Northern Iowa
Long Climb Ahead – None

Mountain West (3):
In – Air Force (automatic bid), UNLV, BYU
On the Cusp – None
Long Climb Ahead – Colorado State, San Diego State

Pacific-10 (6):
In – Oregon (automatic bid), UCLA, Washington State, USC, Arizona, Stanford
On the Cusp – None
Long Road Ahead – California, Washington

Southeastern (5):
In – Florida (automatic bid), Kentucky, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee
On the Cusp – LSU, Georgia, Vanderbilt
Long Road Ahead – None

Final Six In: Maryland, USC, Hofstra, Syracuse, West Virginia, Michigan
First Six Out: Georgia, Bradley, Virginia, Xavier, Providence, Vanderbilt

What team did I miss? What team doesn’t deserve to be on the list? We want to know what you think. Post your comments below.