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Sunday, January 21, 2007

Who's In and Who's Out: Inaugural Edition

Welcome to the first posting of which teams will be making the NCAA Tournament come March and which will be left at home.

I plan to update this on a regular basis (hopefully weekly). Just a few notes before we begin. The field is determined based on what is happening right now, as if the Tournament selection was today. I am not projecting what teams will be doing in the future. Because of that, teams that are in first place in their respective conferences get the automatic bids. In the case of a tie between two teams, the team that has performed better overall to this point in the season gets the nod.

Let’s start with conferences that will absolutely be getting only one bid (these teams need to maintain their spots at the top to make the dance):

America East: Vermont
Atlantic Sun: East Tennessee State
Big Sky: Idaho State
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: Long Beach State
Ivy: Pennsylvania
Metro Atlantic Athletic: Loyola (Md.)
Mid Continent: Oral Roberts
Mid-America: Toledo
Mid-Eastern Athletic: Delaware State
Northeast: Sacred Heart
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Patriot: Holy Cross
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Southwest Athletic: Texas Southern
Sunbelt: South Alabama

Now there are four conferences that are almost certainly only one bid conferences, assuming the team at the top of the standings now wins the conference tournament. Potential at-large teams will have to root like hell for these four teams, because if they don’t get their conferences automatic bids, they are likely to steal coveted at-large spots.

Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler
West Coast: Gonzaga
Western Athletic: Nevada

Now for the rest of the conferences (total current bids in parenthesis):

Atlantic 10 (1):
In – Rhode Island (automatic bid)
On the Cusp – Xavier, Massachusetts
Long Climb Ahead – George Washington

Atlantic Coast Conference (8):
In – Boston College (automatic bid), North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Duke, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Maryland
On the Cusp – None
Long Climb Ahead – Virginia

Big 12 (5):
In – Texas A&M (automatic bid), Kansas, Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma State
On the Cusp – Kansas State
Long Climb Ahead – Oklahoma

Big East (7):
In – Pittsburgh (automatic bid), Syracuse, Notre Dame, Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia, Providence
On the Cusp – Connecticut
Long Climb Ahead – Louisville, Seton Hall, DePaul, Villanova

Big Ten (4):
In – Wisconsin (automatic bid), Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State
On the Cusp – Michigan, Illinois
Long Climb Ahead – Purdue, Iowa

Colonial Athletic (2):
In – Virginia Commonwealth, Hofstra
On the Cusp – Drexel
Long Climb Ahead – None

Missouri Valley (4):
In – Northern Iowa (automatic bid), Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State
On the Cusp – None
Long Climb Ahead – Bradley

Mountain West (2):
In – Air Force (automatic bid), UNLV
On the Cusp – None
Long Climb Ahead – Colorado State, San Diego State, BYU

Pacific-10 (5):
In – Oregon (automatic bid), UCLA, Washington State, USC, Arizona
On the Cusp – Stanford
Long Road Ahead – California, Washington

Southeastern (6):
In – Florida (automatic bid), Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, Tennessee
On the Cusp – Georgia
Long Road Ahead – Vanderbilt, Mississippi State

Final Four In: Maryland, Florida State, Missouri State, Creighton
First Four Out: Xavier, Michigan, Drexel, Stanford

What team did I miss? What team doesn’t deserve to be on the list? We want to know what you think. Post your comments below.

6 Comments:

  • At 1:17 PM EST, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Teams in the Pac-10 have it hard this year. 5/10 teams are top 30. So a team like UW had to play 10/18 games against those guys, making it a tough task to get the 10 conference wins usually needed for an at large bid. If UW has a losing conference record can they still go dancing? They already beat LSU, so what if they beat Pitt?

     
  • At 3:42 PM EST, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I think you put BC on you're automatic in list without reading the latest news... by suspending defense juggernaut Sean Williams I think they just knocked themselves out of the tournment, or at least put themselves on the cusp.

     
  • At 8:04 PM EST, Blogger Steve Bernard said…

    Camerman Kevin,

    I only have BC projected as the automatic bid becuase they were in first place at the time I posted the projections (and that is how I determined the automatic bids). I am projecting the field as if the tournament selection were taking place today. And, as of today, Boston College is definitely in the NCAA Tournament. We'll see how Sean Williams getting kicked off the BC team affects them down the stretch, and my projections will be adjusted weekly.

     
  • At 8:06 PM EST, Blogger Steve Bernard said…

    Seattle Steve,

    Washington doesn't deserve to be in right now. If you are near the bottom of your own conference, it is going to be tough to make the NCAA Tournament. As of now, Washington is on the outside looking in. In a few weeks with a few more wins, Washington could be in the field. For now, they've been playing bad and that hurts them.

     
  • At 10:13 AM EST, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Well that makes sense then and I stand corrected. Your opinion and your methodology match up perfectly on this one then

     
  • At 11:39 AM EST, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I don't have a blog account so thats what the anonymous is about. Name is David but that really doesn't matter.

    I wanna make an argument for the little guy! I am a student at Appalachian State University of the Southern Conference. No doubt the conference will only get the one automatic bid but I argue that it will not go to Davidson. We are just a better team. The records are close, theirs is better, but three of our five losses this year came against Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, and Clemson. Sorry about a long post, but I just wanted to put in a resume for the Mountaineers:

    Wins Over: Virginia, Vanderbilt, UCF, and Davidson.
    Record: 16-5
    National RPI: 43
    That RPI puts them ahead of a lot of the teams that you either have in or on the cusp: Gonzaga, Xavier, UMass, Georgia Tech, West Virginia, Providence, Connecticut, Hofstra, VCU, USC, LSU, Kansas State, and Drexel.

    Now I know the conference will not get more than one bid, but in my mind they deserve it. It will be a shame to see a team like App or Davidson miss out even if they have the tournament resume. Anyway, just giving my thoughts.

     

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