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Saturday, November 04, 2006

What's Cookin? - The Yankees


The Yankees theme this offseason should be: It’s the pitching stupid. The Yankees are pretty much set on offense. In fact, unless they trade Alex Rodriguez (highly unlikely), they might only have space for a first basemen if they want to DH Jason Giambi full-time.

So let’s talk pitching. They are unlikely to pick up Mike Mussina’s option, meaning he will be a free agent. That doesn’t mean he won’t be back. If they don’t aggressively try to re-sign him, fans should be infuriated. He is likely to cost them about $25 million over two years. He has been their best, most consistent starter since he joined the team in 2001. With him and Chien-Ming Wang at the top of the rotation, along with Randy Johnson, they are three-fifths of the way to a decent rotation. The back end needs some work though. Jaret Wright hasn’t pitched well in a big game this millennium. Carl Pavano might’ve been the biggest waste of money in the history of the Yankees (yeah ,it’s been that bad).

Chances are they are going to make a bid for Daisuke Matsuzaka. Chances are they are going to bid the most, which means they’ll have 30 days to negotiate a deal with Matsuzaka. Believe me, if they have the winning bid, they’ll make sure they sign him. So he gets added and probably will be the number four starter in the rotation. Not a bad fourth starter if he can put up close to the numbers he had in Japan.

As for a fifth starter, that is a toss up. They might hope for Pavano to get healthy or Wright to step up. I think they are better off finding a mid-level free agent like Jeff Suppan, though Suppan’s price tag went way up last month.

Now let’s discuss some potential trade situations. Already, I said A-Rod is unlikely to go anywhere and I believe that. The one trade that will happen is Gary Sheffield. The Yankees are picking up his option with the plan to trade him. If I was a team interested. I would hold out for a long while. I mean the Yankees have no desire to bring him back and if they’ve already picked up the option they are on the hook for $13 million.

Of course, someone is not going to be able to hold out. Philadelphia or the Cubs or the Rangers or the Astros will lose out on Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee and look at Sheffield as a one-year option for an outfielder. The Yankees, I would expect, will look for pitching help in this deal – which could mean a viable starter instead of signing a guy like Suppan or re-signing Mussina.

If they are to going to trade A-Rod – they should make a strong push to get Carlos Zambrano from the Cubs and go out and sign Aramis Ramirez. That would actually make them a better team overall because Ramirez isn’t quite as good offensively as A-Rod, but it would be a huge upgrade to the rotation.

Likely 2007 Starters
C – Jorge Posada
1B – Jason Giambi
2B – Robinson Cano
SS – Derek Jeter
3B – Alex Rodriguez
LF – Hideki Matsui
CF – Johnny Damon
RF – Bobby Abreu
DH – Melky Cabrera (rotating into the outfield as well)

SP – Mike Mussina
SP – Chien-Ming Wang
SP – Randy Johnson
SP – Diasuke Matsuzaka
SP – Pavano/Wright/Starter picked up in Sheffield trade
CL – Mariano Rivera

Photo Source: Sports Illustrated

What's Cookin? - The Mets

A little hot stove baseball report before free agency kicks off.

Baseball free agency will be kicking off shortly, and there could be close to 200 free agents available. Not that this season has many great free agents, but there are some that will draw significant interest. But, I’m not here to list those players one-by-one and discuss their strengths. I am going to go team-by-team and talk about what they need, and who might fit the bill.

New York Mets – The Mets need a leftfielder, second baseman and some pitching help. Injuries to the pitching staff ruined their chances at making the World Series and they still came within an inning of winning the National League. First and foremost, the Mets need some starting pitching. Don’t expect to see Steve Trachsel back. Pedro Martinez won’t even throw off a mound until June and Orlando Hernandez and Tom Glavine are free agents. That leaves John Maine, Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfry, Brian Bannister, Phillip Humber and Dave Williams as potential starters. Clearly those guys won’t be making up the rotation come April. But, expect two of that group to be in the rotation when the season starts. My hunch is John Maine and Oliver Perez will be the guys after some great postseason work. Pelfry, Bannister and Humber are all young and should start the season at Triple A. Williams could be a long man out of the pen, a piece of a trade or another Triple A guy available for injuries.

The Mets are looking at resigning Tom Glavine to a two-year deal. It makes sense. Despite being 40, he hasn’t been on the DL and pitched really well the past season and a half. Count him in for the rotation next season. That makes three. El Duque was a great clubhouse guy last season and pitched well (9-7, 4.09 ERA) after joining the Mets. He should draw a lot of interest, but I think he’ll be back with a one-year deal. That makes four.

The fifth starter will come from outside the organization. Chances are it will be a moderately- to high-priced free agent. Barry Zito is a possibility to be reunited with pitching coach Rick Peterson. Daisuke Matsuzaka is another possibility. Bids in the posting process are due to the Commissioner’s office by Wednesday afternoon. The Mets will certainly make a bid, but I’m not so sure they will top the Yankees bid. My guess is that they won’t. Another possibility as reported by the New York Post recently is Mike Mussina. Mussina is a free agent and if the Yankees don’t resign him, he could be in the Mets rotation as he is unlikely to stray far from the east coast. A move to Queens could make sense. He’ll probably cost the Mets two years at $25 million or so.

Now, what the Mets should do is make a play for Dontrelle Willis. Willis will get at least $8 million in arbitration this year and for the right price can be had. The Marlins payroll would probably jump a little too much for cheapskate owner Jeffrey Loria. A package of Aaron Heilman, Lastings Milledge and maybe one more mid-tier prospect would probably do the trick. If the Mets can pull this off, that should be option number one! The Matsuzaka situation will clear itself up just before free agency, so we’ll comeback to the number five starter question after that. We’ll cover the bullpen at a later time as well.

As for left field and second base, well they could sign Alfonso Soriano and play him at either. He is average defensively at both positions, but would provide a huge boost to an already potent lineup. Picture him batting fifth between Carlos Delgado and David Wright. That’d be pretty damn good. There are some cheaper options than Soriano (actually just about anyone in free agency would be a cheaper option). Moises Alou is another option – a one-year stop gap until Milledge is ready for full-time duty.

Julio Lugo is the name mentioned most for second base. Adam Kennedy would be a solid option as well. A career .280 hitter, he could be a solid bat in the eight hole and he plays solid defense. New York-native Rich Aurilia could be another option on a one-year deal.

The bet – Moises Alou signs a one-year deal to hold the position for Milledge, with Endy Chavez getting plenty of playing time in the outfield. And, for second base, Julio Lugo probably ends up there.

Likely 2007 Starters
C – Paul LoDuca
1B – Carlos Delgado
2B – Julio Lugo
SS – Jose Reyes
3B – David Wright
LF – Moises Alou
CF – Carlos Beltran
RF – Shawn Green

SP – Tom Glavine
SP – Orlando Hernandez
SP – Barry Zito
SP – Oliver Perez
SP – John Maine
CL – Billy Wagner

Ok, this one got really long, so I am going to break these up into a few posts.

Friday, November 03, 2006

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Do you prefer bagels and cream cheese or biscuits and gravy? Football on Saturdays or Sundays? Big 10 or SEC? The Braves or the Yankees?

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