Method to My Madness

So some questions have arisen about my formula. Well, first off, let me just say I am not going to give away the exact formula to my secret sauce. Think of this as one of those cooking shows on television, where they say, throw in some sugar or add some garlic, but never give you the exact amounts.

I started with the notion that teams should obviously be credited for playing well throughout the season, but also that because there is no playoff in college football, games later in the season take on more meaning. So, a game in November is going to count more than a game played in September. The National Championship should be played between teams that are the best, and typically the best teams play better late in the season when the pressure is greater. I’d rather see a 11-1 team that is red-hot and won 11 straight games playing in the national title game than an 11-1 team that lost its last week of the season. The hot team, at the moment the rankings are calculated is, at that point in the season, the better team.

With that being said, for wins, the formula includes the opponent’s winning percentage, the opponent’s ranking at the time the game was played, when the game was played and bonus points for road victories.

For losses, teams lose points based on the opponent’s winning percentage, if they are ranked or not, when the game was played and lose extra points for losing at home.

I think ranking at the time two teams played is important because it values a team for playing a perceived tougher non-conference game at the beginning of the season. Plus it values a team for beating an opponent when they were playing well. Opponent’s winning percentage, which is the largest individual piece, makes up for the fact the team might have tanked and fallen out of the rankings.

So, for the Arkansas-USC situation; Arkansas got hammered for losing at home, but not punished too much because USC was highly ranked. Despite not getting a huge boost because it was early in the season, USC gets major points for winning on the road and the fact that Arkansas has a great winning percentage and has played well since the game. Basically that situation comes down to who Arkansas and USC lost to, at what time of the season, and who has better victories. In this case, the formula says that the slight advantage based on those factors goes to Arkansas.

Next week, it could all change!

Not all of South has racing stripes

NASCAR driver Jimmie Johnson just won the Nextel Cup. But if you live in Arkansas you probably won't hear much about it. Surprising, huh?

It shouldn't be. There is a perception around the country that the South is mad about stock car racing. The sport, however, is only a cultural phenomenon in certain areas — the Carolinas, the Redneck Riviera and perhaps parts of Tennessee. Usually wherever there is a track and big race there are fans who live in that area that regularly spend their Sunday afternoons watching 43 cars make hundreds of left turns.

But in Arkansas and Mississippi, no NASCAR races are held and the interest level in the sport is tepid at best. Somehow these two states have been left out of the fun while cities in California and New York have been included on the stock-car racing circuit.


It should be noted that NASCAR did throw Arkansas a bone last year when it opened one of its licensing offices. However, its decision to take this step had a lot to do with the fact that Wal-Mart is based in in Bentonville, Ark. Like all major vendors, NASCAR is trying to curry favor with the world's largest retailer, not the people living in this state. And unsurprisingly Arkansans have responded by not paying much attention to a sport that has no base here.

Even as Arkansas native Mark Martin made his last attempt to win a points championship, nobody in the state gave it much thought. It certainly wasn't a hot topic of conversation. People here like football and that is what they talk about in the fall, winter, spring and summer.

Perhaps if NASCAR decided to hold a race in Arkansas, it would attract a new fan base in a region many thought was already obsessed with the auto racing. But not everybody in the South knows Jeff Gordon's sponsor or drives around with a Dale Earnhardt sticker on their car. Here in Arkansas if you ask somebody who Jimmie (or Jimmy) Johnson is, they will likely tell you that he is a football coach who once played for the Razorbacks.

And that likely won't change no matter how many Nextel Cup titles Johnson wins in the future.

Sorting Out the Top 15

Well, more than a few things happened Saturday that mean the Top 15 could have a bit of a different look this week. I am writing this introduction before I sort out the facts, but I am going to try and rank the Top 15 (really, I am looking to see who are the best one-loss teams) based on who they’ve beaten and who they’ve lost to. Obviously Ohio State is No. 1. From there, I am not so sure. I am going to try and incorporate some science into it (maybe a little math into a formula, as I am somewhat of a numbers guy) and there will be a little bit of your typical human element.

With that, I am about to embark on ranking these teams. Here is my Top 15

1 – Ohio State 5.6049
2 – Michigan 4.9125
3 – Florida 4.4971
4 – Arkansas 4.4394
5 – USC 4.2796
6 – Louisville 4.2606
7 – Boise State 4.1683
8 – Rutgers 3.9956
9 – Notre Dame 3.9447
10 – Wisconsin 3.9234
11 – Texas 3.8031
12 – LSU 3.7266
13 – West Virginia 3.7138
14 – Oklahoma 3.2516
15 – Auburn 3.1683

There is still a lot to play out over the next couple of weeks as Arkansas faces LSU and Florida. Florida obviously has Arkansas. USC and Notre Dame play each other. Rutgers and West Virginia still have to play. LSU and Arkansas. West Virginia and Rutgers. These rankings are bound to change. And even though I don't want to see it, a rematch of Ohio State and Michigan is likely based on my new, highly accurate (yet still unrefined) ranking system.

I’ve also decided that I think this formula could be pretty good, so I am going to work on tweaking and revising it to make it a little better and see how that goes. Who knows, maybe we’ll have a formula to use and be able to give you a Top 25 each week next season.