Bagels & Biscuits

Do you prefer bagels and cream cheese or biscuits and gravy? Football on Saturdays or Sundays? Big 10 or SEC? The Braves or the Yankees? You know what? It doesn't matter. You can have it all right here.

Saturday, December 09, 2006

A Revolution: Part 2

As promised, here is the second part of the write up about all the young quarterbacks popping up all over the NFL over the past couple of seasons. Like I mentioned in the earlier post (see below), there are 11 quarterbacks with less than two years starting experience leading their teams right now. Here’s a look at the five I didn’t cover in the last post…

Philip Rivers, San Diego – After a couple of years on the bench, Rivers is quickly showing that he is the best quarterback from his class (a class that includes Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger). Rivers has a strong arm, is accurate (completes 64.4 percent of his passes) and has good vision (16 touchdowns against only six interceptions). The Chargers are the best team in the NFL right now. Of course it helps greatly that he has LaDanian Tomlinson to rely on in the backfield, but Rivers is doing everything asked of him and more. He is on pace to throw for about 3,500 yards and more than 20 touchdowns this season. Those are the kind of numbers that send a quarterback to the Pro Bowl. I wonder if the Giants regret trading Rivers for Manning on draft day just a few years ago. Look for Rivers to make multiple trips to Honolulu during his career.


Alex Smith, San Francisco – Smith has looked a lot better this season than he did during the half a season he started last year. Even still, he doesn’t quite measure up to some of the other young gunslingers around. He arm is average at best and his ability to read a defense leaves something to be desired. He’s thrown 12 interceptions this season (which puts him on pace to throw 16 for the year). He averages 6.55 yards per attempt, which is on the low end. That shows a combination of lacking the ability to make a big play down field and accuracy (completes only 59.9 percent of his passes). Smith probably shouldn’t have been the top overall draft pick in 2005. The 49ers went with need when there wasn’t a top-rated quarterback in the draft. They’ll probably come to regret that in a few years as Smith puts up mediocre numbers for a few more seasons.


Bruce Gradkowsi, Tampa Bay – Gradkowski was thrust into the starting position after Chris Simms ruptured his spleen during a game earlier in the season. Gradkowski has worked hard to keep the Bucs in games, but his future (at least in Tampa) is not as a starter. It is Simms' job when he returns, and Gradkowski will go back to toting a clipboard, which is probably what he should be doing. He’s struggled quite a bit, completing only 54.4 percent of his passes this season and throwing nine interceptions in nine starts. His inability to attack a defense has led to teams filling the box to shut down the running game. Gradkowski could be a serviceable backup in the league, but don’t expect him to pull a Tom Brady or anything like that and be a guy drafted late who blossoms into a top-five quarterback.

Vince Young, Tennessee – While some of the numbers aren’t overly impressive (50.2 percent completion percentage, 10 interceptions), Vince Young is 5-4 as a starter, including three straight wins with the last two in dramatic fashion. His system at Texas was not similar to a pro-style offense, so Young has had much learning to do on the fly this year, and while there are bumps in the road, the guy just knows how to win. He brought the Titans back from a 21-0 deficit with 10 minutes remaining against the Giants a couple of weeks ago and then helping them to kick a last-second field goal to beat the Colts a week ago. Everyone knew it would take Young some time to develop his style to fit the pro game, but no one could’ve expected his development to be this rapid. He should only get better and has the potential to blossom into a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback. He already knows how to win, now his mechanics and ability to find the open receiver need to catch up. Oh, and his legs make him an immensely dangerous quarterback – think more Steve Young or Randall Cunningham than Mike Vick when you think Vince Young.

Jason Campbell, Washington – The Redskins probably went to him too late this year to salvage a playoff run, but Campbell has shown flashes of being a solid NFL quarterback. After two solid starts (four touchdowns, one interception) to begin his career, he struggled last week against Atlanta (18-of-38 with two interceptions). Campbell has a strong arm and is a workaholic. Having played for six different offensive coordinators in six seasons dating back to college probably has slowed his development a bit, but his work ethic should help him overcome that. With only three games under his belt, it’s still a bit early to get a read on him, but he certainly has the size, strength and speed to be a solid NFL quarterback – maybe not just a regular at the Pro Bowl.

Taking into account all 11 quarterbacks, if I had to rate them right now based on long-term potential, here’s how the list would look…

1 – Philip Rivers
2 – Matt Leinart
3 – Vince Young
4 – Tony Romo
5 – Jason Campbell
6 – Jay Cutler
7 – David Garrard
8 – J.P. Losman
9 – Charlie Frye
10 – Alex Smith
11 – Bruce Gradkowski

What do you think? We want to hear from you. Post your comments below or e-mail us (address on the right).

Photo Sources: Scout.com, SportsNetwork.com, Buccaneers.com, NBCSports.com, MSNBC.com

Thursday, December 07, 2006

Project 2007: U.S. Soccer in need of direction

Word came out today that Juergen Klinsmann has decided to withdraw his name from consideration to be the next head coach of the United States national soccer team. This is not good news for the Yanks, who seemed ready to move in a new direction after Clint Dempsey, Kasey Keller and friends failed to make it past the group stage of the 2006 World Cup.

The poor performance in Germany prompted the U.S. Soccer Federation to bid adieu to Bruce Arena, who had guided the team to 71 victories in seven-plus years and was the most successful coach the Americans have had in the modern era. Most considered Arena to be a lame duck going into the tournament, but he had indicated he wanted to stay on and help the team qualify for South Africa in 2010.


U.S.S.F president Sunil Gulati had other ideas, but it's pretty obvious that he didn't really have much of a plan if Klinsmann decided he didn't want to be Arena's replacement. Now, the team is stuck with Bob Bradley as its interim coach. Bradley has a nice resume, but he has only cut his teeth in Major League Soccer.

You can argue that Arena had similar qualifications when he was hired as national team coach in 1998. After all, he also made his name in this country's top domestic league. But that begs the question: Why not just keep Arena if Bradley is going to be the next-best candidate? After five months, this is the best Gulati could do?

From an outsider's perspective, it appears Gulati put all of his eggs in one basket. He wanted Klinsmann. He wanted the former German national team star from the moment he saw Klinsmann lead his own country to a surprising third-place finish in the World Cup this year. But it turns out Klinsi wasn't as enamored with Gulati as Gulati was with him.

Arena must be laughing at the current situation, just as he did at the soccer federation's lofty goal to win the World Cup by 2010.

Both seem absurd right now and Gulati only has himself to blame for this mess. Once again U.S. Soccer has taken one step forward only to take two more in the opposite direction.

Photo Source: http://www.ultrabrown.com/

Tuesday, December 05, 2006

A Revolution

It’s happening. It’s early, but it’s happening. It’s one of the biggest revolutions in football history. Young quarterbacks are streaming, no, check that, flooding into the ranks of starters. More teams in the past couple of years have turned to young, highly and not-so-highly touted, young quarterbacks to take the reins of struggling and playoff-bound NFL teams. Forgive my youth (and the less than 20 years of professional football I can recall), but in the past 15 or 20 years there has not been a mass changing of the guard at the most important position in the NFL like the one we are experiencing right now. There are 11 quarterbacks currently starting in the NFL that have been running an offense for less than two seasons. In case you were wondering, they are: Matt Leinart, J.P. Losman, Charlie Frye, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, David Garrard, Philip Rivers, Alex Smith, Bruce Gradkowski (who is replacing another youngster – Chris Simms), Vince Young and Jason Campbell.

It’s staggering really. Guys like David Carr, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning and Rex Grossman are grizzled veterans in today’s landscape.

Let’s take a look at some of the young gunslingers to see how they are faring and what we can expect from them this year and in the coming years because I’m sure most of them plan on sticking around for a while.

Matt Leinart, Arizona – The Cardinals have put Leinart in a very enviable long-term situation. True, they won’t be going anywhere this year, and probably not even next year, but with Larry Fitgerald and Anquan Boldin split wide and Edgerrin James in the backfield, Leinart is poised to have some big years in the desert. That is, of course, if the front office can find some offensive linemen to protect these guys. With a little protection, this could be a fun offense to watch. For now, porous blocking and a youthful Leinart make it a little tough to watch. But it will get better. Leinart has the potential (with the weapons surrounding him) to make a Pro Bowl or two with the Cardinals. In eight starts so far, he has thrown for nearly 2,000 yards with eight touchdowns and nine interceptions.


J.P. Losman, Buffalo – Losman is in only his first full season at the helm of the Bills. The Bills, like Leinart’s team is struggling a bit. The Tulane product has certainly been serviceable thus far. He has a rating of 82.0 and has thrown for nearly 2,200 yards with 12 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He’s probably not going to be a Pro-Bowl caliber quarterback, but he hasn’t lost many games for the Bills this year either. He’s probably a Trent Dilfer-type; steady, yet unspectacular. That also means the Bills probably won’t be the lone team he starts for in his career.

Charlie Frye, Cleveland – Frye’s status for the remainder of the season is up in the air. His wrist is not broken, as was earlier diagnosed, so he might be back. The question is: Do the Browns want him back in the starting lineup? Yes, he’s young and doesn’t have a ton of help, but he has thrown an awful lot of interceptions this season (16). It appears he tries to force passes a bit too much, and maybe with a little seasoning that will improve. But the early prognosis is that he might more suited to being a solid, reliable backup for much of his career.

Tony Romo, Dallas – Can a young quarterback really step in during the middle of a season and lead his team to the Super Bowl? Romo sure looks like that is what he plans on doing. He has been nothing but clutch since he took over in Dallas for Drew Bledsoe. He is the top rated passer in the league (102.4). He is 5-1 as a starter, with the lone loss coming on a last-second field goal in a crazy final minute against the Redskins. Romo looks like the real deal. He has 1,913 yards with 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He certainly has shown he has Pro Bowl potential. Let’s see how he performs down the stretch as the team looks to make it to, and play deep into the playoffs. He might not ever be as good as Troy Aikman, but he’ll be a solid NFL quarterback for a number of seasons.

Jay Cutler, Denver – The Broncos let him start for the first time last week in place of Jake Plummer. Some people are already calling for a return to Plummer. Was it really that bad? Well, if you are in the thick of a playoff race, yes. There is no need for Cutler to be starting right now. Plummer had the Broncos at 7-4 and in good shape to make the postseason. Unlike Dallas where the team was shaky with Bledsoe in the starting role, the Broncos were playing pretty well (good enough to be on the inside of the playoff bubble). Cutler certainly has the tools to be an excellent quarterback, but after one start, it’s still too early to tell how good he can be. He was 10-of-21 for 143 yards and two touchdowns and a pair of interceptions (one was returned for a touchdown).

The situation he was thrust into isn’t exactly the best for a team looking to develop a long-term quarterback. He is immediately expected to lead his team to victories and a playoff spot. That might be a little too much pressure. Long-term prediction is he ends up with the longest post-Elway tenure for the Broncos (I know that’s not saying much, but that is as far as I am willing to go right now).

David Garrard, Jacksonville – I threw Garrard into this list because really, this is only the second chance he is getting to start for the Jags, and there is a good chance this will be the time he cements himself as the starter for good. With Byron Leftwich on the shelf for the rest of the season, Garrard has plenty of time to prove he should be the guy next year. He’s only started five games thus far, and has had one really bad outing, but has been above average the rest of the time. He has a great arm and good vision. His only interceptions of the season came in that nasty loss to Houston in Week 10. He's thrown for 1,088 yards with seven touchdowns and four interceptions this season, while completing nearly 60 percent of his passes. While he may not be on a Pro Bowl roster most seasons, he could be an average starter in the NFL.

So that’s six of the 11 young quarterbacks. I’ll cover the rest in a post later in the week just to leave you hanging and draw you back for Rivers, Smith, Gradkowski, Young and Campbell.

Photo Sources: SportsNetwork.com, Scout.com, Dallas Cowboys, LongMontFYI.com, DallasNews.com

Monday, December 04, 2006

Sweet Home Alabama? Not anymore.

Watching Alabama search for a new head coach is kind of amusing. Talk to any fan in the South that is not aligned with the Crimson Tide and they'll tell you so. Don't be mistaken; schadenfeude is alive and well in the Southeastern Conference.

After all, how can you not crack a smile at this Dixie soap opera that seems to have the same plot line for every episode? It goes something like this: a possible candidate's name is reported, he immediately declares he is not interested in the position and Crimson Tide fans are left to speculate who will be walking the sidelines with a clipboard and headset next fall. Scrub. Rinse. Dry. Scrub. Rinse. Dry. Over and over again.


So far nobody has openly campaigned for a job that was once considered one of the best in college football.

It's odd, but perhaps everybody is starting to realize that Alabama is not such a great destination — not after four coaches have come and gone since 2000 and the football program was put on probation for four years. But it's hard for Crimson Tide fans to understand this. They are married to the team's past. See — at Alabama there was once this great coach named Paul "Bear" Bryant. He won a lot of games and was sort of an autocrat — a larger-than-life figure in a state that loved its football.

But the"Bear," as fans who cheer for other Southeastern Conference teams like to tell Bama supporters, is dead. He's not coming back. Still, he is everywhere you go in Tuscaloosa. On the walls in living rooms across town. In the local drinking establishments. Firing up the crowd at Bryant-Denny Stadium with a garbled pep talk on the scoreboard. It's kind of scary and it's not helping the Crimson Tide, which went 6-6 this year before the administration decided to can head coach Mike Shula.

Alabama needs new blood. Four years ago it seemed that the administration thought so too when it hired Mike Price. But then Price had his little escapade with some strippers and he was fired. That was too bad. It would have been fun watching a Spread offense be installed at an institution that defines old-school. And it still could happen. Word on the street is that Bama is looking hard at Rich Rodriguez.

It would be a smart hire for a school that needs to rock the boat. But it may be too late. Alabama is no longer a destination job and that's hard to believe.

Photo Source: Rolltide.com/ESPN

A sleeping giant rests in the Show-Me State

They may not be the best team in college basketball. But the Missouri Tigers are perhaps the most entertaining. They scrap, they claw, they run and they jack up threes. It hasn't taken long for Mike Anderson to leave his imprint on a program that was in disarray last spring when former coach Quin Snyder was fired after seven rather unremarkable seasons in the Show-Me State.

The Tigers are 9-0 and they are playing the fast-paced, in-your-face, frenetic brand of basketball that is hard to find these days in the structured world of college basketball. Matchup zone? Those are foreign words to Missouri coach Mike Anderson. Diamond press? Now that's more like it.


For 17 years. Anderson was former Arkansas coach Nolan Richardson's understudy. He sat on the bench while the Razorbacks advanced to three Final Fours and won the 1994 national championship. He watched opponents wither under the "40 Minutes of Hell" pressure defense that the Razorbacks played in the 1990s. He saw that even average players could thrive in the system.

And after four successful years as a head coach at Alabama-Birmingham, Anderson is about to unleash his furious brand of baskeball on some unsuspecting Big 12 teams. It's going to be fun to watch.

If you haven't done so already, mark it down that Missouri is a sleeping giant in college basketball. The Tigers have a strong fan base, a brand-new facility and a fertile recruiting area. Most importantly, however, they have a coach who knows how to win. It's been a long time since Missouri has been relevant on the national scene. You really have to go back to the Norm Stewart era to to understand where Missouri once stood as a program.

Stewart's name is now scrawled on the court at Mizzou Arena and the Tigers are trying to revive the glory days of the past. Bet that it will happen sooner rather than later. The program will get a lot of victories in the near future, but the fans are already getting their money's worth. Here's some advice for the Big 12 this season: look out because the Tigers are on the prowl.

Photo Source: Columbia Missourian

Sunday, December 03, 2006

Tracking the Top 25

Well, the regular season and conference championship games have concluded and I've come up with the final computer rankings for the Top 25. Yes, I've expanded it again adding another five teams. I still don't think the formula is quite right. For this one, I went with the winning percentage bonus because I think that needs to be in there. But, I still think I might be overweighting losses, but I am not 100% sure. I am going to run some tests on various formulas during the offseason to determine which one is best for next year. And who knows, maybe I can rank every Division I-A team then.

And without further ado (More notes at the end)...

1 Ohio State 12-0
2 Florida 12-1
3 Michigan 11-1
4 Boise State 12-0
5 LSU 10-2
6 Louisville 11-1
7 Oklahoma 11-2
8 Wisconsin 11-1
9 Virginia Tech 10-2
10 USC 10-2
11 Notre Dame 10-2
12 Wake Forest 11-2
13 Rutgers 10-2
14 Arkansas 10-3
15 Tennessee 9-3
16 Auburn 10-2
17 West Virginia 10-2
18 BYU 10-2
19 Texas 9-3
20 Boston College 9-3
21 Houston 10-3
22 California 9-3
23 TCU 10-2
24 Pennsylvania State 8-4
25 Nebraska 9-4

Conference Breakdown (lowest ranked in parenthesis)
SEC - 5 (16)
Big Ten - 4 (24)
Big East - 3 (17)
Big XII - 3 (25)
ACC - 3 (20)
MWC - 2 (23)
Pac 10 - 2 (22)
Independent - 1 (11)
WAC - 1 (4)
Conference USA - 1 (21)


I think the rankings are pretty accurate. Florida deserves a shot at the national title after playing the toughest schedule in the country and winning the best overall conference in the nation. Michigan's schedule was not as tough as Florida's. The Gators showed they can win games against the best competition (six games against top 25 teams and five games against top 25 defenses). Actually, the largest gap in my formula between any two teams is between Florida and Michigan. I created the formula with no idea how things would play out - so the rankings are based solely on a team's quality of competition and ability to beat that competition. By this formula, Florida's tougher schedule and ability to win games down the stretch make them the second best team in the country today.

To give you an idea of how close these rankings can get: The difference between Wake Forest and Rutgers is about .002. Houston and California are separated by about .003. Compare that to Florida which is ahead of Michigan by about .55.

Using these rankings, here is how I'd have the five BCS Bowl Games:
BCS Championship: 1 Ohio State vs. 2 Florida
Rose Bowl: 3 Michigan vs. 10 USC
Fiesta Bowl: 4 Boise State vs. 7 Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl: 5 LSU vs. 11 Notre Dame
Orange Bowl: 6 Louisville vs. 12 Wake Forest

Just a refresher on how I am calculating the rankings...
Teams get points for wins based on when they play the game (diminishing returns for wins earlier in the year to get a true representation about how a team is playing right now), what their opponent was ranked at the time of the game, where the game was played and their opponents winning percentage the day of the rankings are calculated.

Teams lose points for the opposite reasons. They lose points based on when the game was played (losses late in the season hurt more than losses early on), where their opponent was ranked at the time, where the game was played and their opponents winning percentage the day the rankings are calculated.

Bonuses are added for the team's winning percentage.

The rankings are supposed to represent who is playing the best football at the time of the rankings while still taking into consideration a full seasons worth of work.