Bagels & Biscuits

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Saturday, January 20, 2007

Championship Weekend Preview

Four teams are left and it’s just a couple of weeks until the Super Bowl. As I have the last couple of weeks, I’m here to breakdown the matchups, and make my predictions for the NFC and AFC Championship games.

New Orleans at Chicago – This should be a great game; the most prolific offense during the regular season in the NFL against one of the toughest defenses in the league. Based on how each team performed the previous few weeks, the game should be somewhat high scoring and definitely close.

When New Orleans has the ball – The Saints had the top-ranked offense in the league this year. The Bears were ranked no. 5 on defense during the regular season. The inside-outside combination of Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush provides the Saints multiple options in the running game. It will be up to Brian Urlacher to read formations and contain these two explosive runners, especially Bush who prefers to take the ball outside. Urlacher and the Bears defensive ends will have to use his speed and get to the corners quickly to cut off angles. The Bears picked off 24 passes during the regular season, but Brees is one of the best quarterbacks in the league right now. He completed better than 64 percent of his passes this season and threw only 11 interceptions.

Over the last five games, the Bears have seen quarterbacks throw for an average of 285 yards per game. That does not bode well for Chicago this week because Brees is the best of the bunch. Joe Horn could be back for the game, and if he is, don’t expect a ton from him because he's returning from a leg injury. Even still, he could pose as a nice decoy and free up some space for guys like Marques Colston. Devin Hester, Ricky Manning, Jr. and Charles Tillman will have their hands quite full this week. I think McAllister will pick up at least 100 yards and Brees will throw for 250 yards.

When Chicago has the ball – The Bears' offense was mediocre this season, while the Saints' defense was solid against the pass, but weak against the run. What does that mean? Well for a team like the Bears with a wildly inconsistent passing attack, Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson are the key offensive weapons. The pair will need to combine for 30 to 35 carries at least for the Bears to have a chance. Jones should get about 75 percent of the carries as well. The Saints would be wise to have a safety creep up closer to the line to help in run support and force Rex Grossman to beat them. Jones will rush for at least 80 yards and Grossman will pass for around 175 yards in the game.

Special Teams – John Carney has been one of the most consistent kickers in the league the last few seasons and is solid. Robbie Gould came up huge last week, but is still a little young to be completely relied on. Devin Hester and his six returns for touchdowns are the wildcard. I would expect the Saints to kick away from him every chance they can. Field position can play a big role in playoff games, so minimizing big returns will be important.

Prediction – For everyone living in Miami the title of a song by The Skids says it all: “The Saints are Coming.” Saints win 28-21.

New England at Indianapolis – It’s like déjà vu all over again. For the third time in the past few years, these two meet for a chance to go to the Super Bowl. Of course this year the game is being played in Indianapolis and not in New England. It’s become one of the best rivalries in the league and this weekend’s game should not disappoint.

When Indianapolis has the ball – The Colts need Peyton Manning to play like he did in the regular season, not what he’s done the past two weeks. The Colts have won despite his struggles recently. Manning has Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne on the outside and will likely get plenty of opportunities to hook up with each. Joseph Addai has been a solid first option out of the backfield and should probably get about 20 carries or so this weekend.

Against Baltimore, Addai and teammate Dominick Rhodes were able to grind it out against one of the best run defenses in the league, so expect them to be solid again this week – probably about 125 or so yards between the pair. Chance are Manning is going to get his yards and throw for a couple of touchdowns, so the Patriots need to make sure they can contain Addai and Rhodes. Stopping the run will help prevent long drives and help the Patriots control the time of possession battle.

When New England has the ball – Tom Brady is about as clutch as they come among quarterbacks right now. He just seems to find a way to win. He made a perfect throw to Reche Caldwell on the game-winning drive in San Diego last week. Despite three interceptions, he still found a way to win.

The Patriots would be smart to rely on Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney to control the game. The Colts' defense during the regular season was brutal against the run, but has been solid in the playoffs. The Patriots must establish the run early to open up the passing game for Brady. Without an effective running game, the Patriots will struggle because they just don’t have enough big-play wide receivers.

Special Teams – Stephen Gostkowski has been good in his rookie season, but Adam Vinatieri is probably the most clutch kicker in the NFL. He used to be the guy winning games for the Patriots. Now he is winning them for the Colts. Just look at what Vinatieri did last week against Baltimore (five field goals, including connecting on a season-long 51-yard kick). He can win a game with his foot. If this game is close and comes down to a field goal, the Colts are at a decided advantage.

Prediction – It’s time for Manning and company to make their way to the Super Bowl. Of course, they are only going to get there because of ex-Patriot Adam Vinatieri. With the game on the line, Vinatieri will connect on a game-winning field goals (maybe not in the last 10 seconds, but late in the game) and the Patriots will be sent home wondering why they weren’t willing to spend that extra cap space they have on one of the most clutch players in the game right now. Colts win a thriller 27-24.

Who do you think will win? Post a comment with your predictions!

Photo Sources: dallasnews.com, chicagobears.com, espn.com, scout.com

Friday, January 19, 2007

Rooting Against the Patriots

I was reading Bill Simmons's column today (I am a fan of Simmons and read his columns regularly) and his comparison of the Patriots to the Yankees.

He basically said that the Patriots are hated by everyone that isn’t actually a Patriots fan. I think he is on to something in terms of people rooting against the Patriots, but I don’t think the Yankees comparison is quite right.

Clearly most people actively root against the Yankees because they spend a ton of money and try to import the best players to win championships. That makes them easy to despise. But the Patriots are different. New England doesn’t overspend for players. It is very team-oriented and doesn't really have any me-first players who want the spotlight. And everyone respects the Patriots for that. But, I think there are two reasons people are beginning to turn on them.

The first is the woe-is-me, underdog, down-on-luck, high-on-our-injuries attitude the team constantly tries to push. The Patriots have won three of the last five Super Bowls!!! You absolutely cannot be an underdog, no matter who is on your team and what obstacles you are facing when you have won so many titles in the recent past. You are a dynasty and by definition dynasties aren’t underdogs; they are the best in their sports. Underdogs cannot be the best! People will root for an underdog, but some champion trying to play the underdog card is annoying. And this everyone-is-hurt, we-are-banged-up crutch the Patriots have been leaning on is a farce too.

Yeah, the Patriots might have injuries, but teams have been playing football since August. Football is one of the most physically demanding and violent sports in the world. Players get hurt all the time on every team every season. And there tend to be more people banged up or injured as the season wears on. You can’t play the injury card when your best players (i.e. Tom Brady, Corey Dillon, Laurence Maroney, Tedy Bruschi) are all playing this week and have been throughout the playoffs. The injury excuse is not valid at this point in the season unless a team is missing at least two (if not more) of its top stars. Only Rodney Harrison is out among the Patriots top players.

The Patriots are in the midst (maybe at the tail end) of one of the best runs in professional sports history. And because of that there is just no reason to be making these claims. Embrace the greatness. People who root for underdogs aren’t going to be fooled by Goliath masquerading as David.

The second reason is people actually root for the underdog! Face it, in the world of free agency and parity people enjoy seeing new teams win (of course they root for their team first, but when that fails, they start rooting for the underdog). And for the reasons I described above, the Patriots cannot be considered the underdog. Dynasties are great if your favorite team is the one that is the dynasty. If that isn’t the case, it’s usually pretty easy to rally around the opponent.

So that is why people are starting to root against the Patriots. The second reason might be a bit similar to why people root against the Yankees, but the first is practically the opposite.

Do you actively root against the Patriots? Why? Why not? Post your comments below.

The buck stops with Vick

Atlanta Falcons coach Bobby Petrino runs a spread offense, so it's only natural that he would prefer to have an accurate dropback passer barking out the signals at the line, reading the defense and making the prescribed throws.

Luckily, he's got one. But his name is not Michael Vick. It's Matt Schaub.

At some point this coming season, Petrino is going to realize this. He probably does now. Unfortunately for him, he has no choice but to start Vick. Vick is the franchise player, after all. The Falcons begin and end with their enigmatic dual-threat quarterback.

Petrino has already said he will tailor his offense to fit Vick. But haven't we heard this before? Since Vick entered in the NFL in 2001, the playbook has always been blamed for his shortcomings on the field. The West Coast offense was too rigid. It didn't allow him to freelance enough. It didn't make use of his best assets.
Perhaps Vick is to blame for the fact that he has never been able to complete more than 57 percent of his passes in a single season. Maybe he should accept responsibility for why the Falcons were so inconsistent on offense this past season.

But he won't.

Vick will continue to fault others. He did with Jim Mora Jr. And it wouldn't be a surprise if he threw Petrino under the bus as well if the Falcons have a slow start in 2007.

However, Vick would be unwise to do so. He will run out of excuses if he doesn't get it done in Petrino's offense. The argument that he's been confined by the system loses its effectiveness when the schemes change, the quarterback remain the same and the results are no different.

As much as it was easy to blame the Titanic's plunge into the Atlantic Ocean on the ship's ill-conceived design, most of the fault must be placed on the captain who failed to steer it away from an iceberg. The same goes for Vick. The system can have deficiencies, but he is the one who carries out the plays. He makes decisions, too. He has control.

Seven years ago, it would have been hard to imagine writing anything like this. Back then, no one thought Vick's talent would be the source of so many problems. In fact, many thought his versatility and wide range of skills would place him among the vanguard of NFL quarterbacks almost immediately. Ironically, it's probably had the opposite effect. It has hindered his development — so much so that an offense now has to be molded to fit his needs. If he was really so good, couldn't he adapt to the playbook he was given?

The answer should be obvious. But in Atlanta nothing is clear. It's why somebody like Schaub, who seems better suited to handle Petrino's offense after completeing 66 percent of his passes in 2006, will likely be carrying a clipboard again this year while Vick puts up less-than-impressive numbers.

By now, people should realize that maybe the problems in Atlanta start not with the system. They begin with the quarterback.

Photo Sources: scout.com., nfl.com

Monday, January 15, 2007

Playoff Observations

I watched just about all of the four NFL divisional playoff games last weekend. There were a few things that jumped out at me as the games were going on. With the Golden Globes on tonight, how about we make these observations an award ceremony? Here are a few observations to contemplate:

Worst performance by a head coach: Andy Reid punting with less than two minutes to go in the game. Philadelphia was down 27-24 with 1:56 remaining and facing a fourth-and-10 on its own 44. Reid set up to go for it and an offensive lineman was called for a false start. That set up a fourth-and-15 from the 39. Reid then decides to punt. It was a terrible call. If you are going to put it in your defense’s hands to make a stop, why not go for it on fourth-and-15? Best case scenario has the Saints picking up no yards (which was probably the goal after they punted), and trying to punt and down the ball inside the 20. The Eagles would probably get the ball at the 20 (after a punt into the end zone) and still have about a minute to go trying to move the ball into field goal range. Basically Reid decided to put the game in the hands of his defense, a defense that couldn’t stop the run all night, instead of relying on his offense, one of the highest rated offenses in the league the entire season. That made absolutely no sense. Fourth-and-15s are tough to pick up, but a defense that was shredded by the run all game long is not going to suddenly stuff Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush at the end of the game. Reid punted and with that decision threw away any slight chance at winning.

Lifetime UN-achievement award: Marty Schottenheimer. Marty-ball chokes it away again. Granted, the Chargers' offense was decent this week, they just couldn’t find a way to do anything right down the stretch (i.e. the last five minutes of the game). Schottenheimer wastes a timeout challenging the fumble. His assistants watching the replay should have been fully aware the proper call was made. He then ends up having to burn one with 3:46 remaining when he desperately could have used them both in the final two minutes. With those extra timeouts, the Chargers might have pushed into a better position and been attempting a field from closer than 54 yards with no time remaining.

Best player in a lead offensive role: Deuce McAllister. The man, who might have had the quietest 1,000-yard season in the history of the NFL this year, rushed 21 times for 143 yards and one touchdown. He also caught four passes for 20 yards and another touchdown. He did it all and the Eagles couldn’t contain him. He, not Reggie Bush, was the biggest offensive threat for the Saints. He should get plenty of carries against the Bears this weekend.

Best performance in a supporting role: Robbie Gould obviously. He might not be on the field that much, but his performance stole the show – a la a great supporting actor. Adam Vinitieri and Stephen Gostkowski played well, but Gould won the game in overtime. And, not only did he win the game in overtime that was the longest kick he’s ever made in his career!

Worst performance in a defensive role: It’s a tie! Marlon McCree and Quentin Jammer. McCree comes up huge with an interception in the fourth quarter with 6:25 remaining in the game. The Chargers are going to take over and run LaDainian Tomlinson into field goal range to go up by 11 and ice the game. But, wait a minute. Troy Brown strips McCree and the Patriots recover. From hero to goat, McCree can’t hold onto the ball after making a huge play and that leads to a touchdown and two-point conversion to tie the game. Did I mention that came on a fourth down?

Next up is Jammer. With the game tied, Schottenheimer puts his best cover corner one-on-one with the Patriots top receiver Reche Caldwell. And, what happened? Jammer gets burned for a 49-yard catch and run by Caldwell that puts the Patriots in field goal range for the game winner. Did I mention that came on third-and-10? An incomplete pass and the Patriots are punting with plenty of time left for the Chargers. Oops!

Best comeback performance: For the man who returned to a former home and played great; the award goes to Reche Caldwell. He had seven receptions for 80 yards, including the game-tying touchdown. And don’t forget that huge 49-yard reception that set up the game-winning field goal that won Jammer a worst performance in a defensive role award. Had the Eagles won, Donte Stallworth and his three receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown might have done it, but a loser in the game means a loser in this category too.

The preview of the championship games will be coming sometime before the first kickoff Sunday. Stay tuned.

Who do you think made the biggest mistakes, came up clutch or deserves recognition for this weekend? What other awards should be handed out for the weekend’s performances? Sound off and post your comments below.

Photo Sources: eagles.scout.com, nfl.com, patriots.com